I live in Mid Sussex, my candidates are (in order of the votes their parties received in the last election):
Nicholas Soames (Con).
Serena Tierney (Lib Dem).
David Boot (Lab).
Marc Montgomery (UKIP).
Baron von Thunderclap (Loony).
In 2005 the Cons got ~23800 votes, Libs ~17900, Labour ~6300, UKIP ~1600 out of ~49500 votes cast.
In 2001 the Cons got ~21200 votes, Libs ~14300, Labout ~8700, UKIP ~1100 out of ~45800 votes cast.
I expect to see an increase in Con, Lib and UKIP votes and probably an increase in overall turnout, probably into the 50-54000 range, though more is possible. The last time we had a massive swing against a hated government was in 1997 when we had a 77.6% turnout.
Labour voters will probably switch to Lib pretty much en-mass or not vote, so I expect their vote will fall in absolute terms by at least a 1000 (and maybe more), and probably to only 10% of votes cast (if not less).
Lib Dems will probably pick up the disaffected Labour voters, but they’d need ALL of them to beat the Con total last time. I’d be surprised if the Lib Dems can get much more than 20,000.
Con’s should increase their vote numbers just based on an anti-labour vote, however the current Con leader is based very much on the Bush “compassionate conservate” model and is also “green” and pro-EU.
The ones to watch are the UKIP, despite their poor showing last time there is a real possibility that they will pick up votes from EU haters, maybe even enough to overtake a collapsing Labour. There is however no realistic chance of winning (shame but true).
So… I wouldn’t vote for Labour even if their candidate was literally a saint.
The Lib-dem candidate promises to campaign on: fair taxes; a fair start for every child; fair, clean and local politics and a fair, green economy with jobs that last. That is socialistic code for high taxes, redistribution of wealth from the productive class to a few poor people as well as an army of nice middle class public sector managers on high wages, and state interference in the economy in order to export nasty dirty jobs abroad. Stupid bitch is no difference too Labour despite claims of “hope & change”. So that’s a no go.
Vote for cons? As they’re going to win anyway that wouldn’t really be an anti-labour vote even tactically, but could (would) be taken as a pro compassionate conservative vote. I want the vote to be as close as possible with conservative gains to be as small as possible. That implies voting Lib-Dem (puke) The only reason to vote UKIP would be to see if they can beat Labour into fourth place. That’s as good a reason as any I suppose.